The potential impact of maritime autonomous surface ships on seafarer employment.
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Date
2021
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Abstract
In search of ways to run their ships more efficiently and safer, Shipowners are looking at limiting human involvement by employing maritime autonomous surface ships (MASS). The MASS levels of autonomy, which will result in varying degrees of human involvement reduction, are still being defined by various bodies. To assist all parties involved in this journey of MASS development and introduction, some classification societies are creating regulatory and guiding documents or instruments. Meanwhile, policymakers globally have their eye on the Blue Economy as a source of solutions to many problems, chief amongst which is employment. Also known as the Oceans Economy, Blue Economy will result in higher demand for transport of goods and persons to, from, and through the sea. Seafarer job increases are therefore among policymakers’ targets.
This dissertation seeks to investigate the potential impact that the successful introduction of MASS will have on seafarer employment. It does this by analysing five classification instruments to see if there is convergence in their approaches toward MASS introduction. The five instruments are dissected for in-depth exploration before being transformed into a standardized format for comparison against each other. This standardized format maps the involvement of humans, a ship’s systems, or a combination of both for some six selected functions – themes – that define a vessel’s autonomy. The format also maps the physical locations of human beings for each degree of autonomy per document covered analyzed.
The findings predict strong convergence in the MASS adoption approaches, which certifies that the world is aligned in its thinking. From this convergence, it is inferred that collaborative approaches, whether direct or indirect, will result which in turn will improve the chances of successful MASS introduction. The reduction in seafarer employment, which will result based on the convergence established will however be non-linear: It will start at a slower pace as with lower autonomy saturation in the market. As time advances, more MASS and ships with higher autonomy degrees will be built increasing autonomy saturation in the market. At some point, lower seafarer employment will emerge, exacerbated by the decline of today’s conventional ships which will be demolished as they reach the ends of their useful lives. Each demolition will result in job losses.
When the market is saturated with autonomy – meaning that almost all ships are fully autonomous – mariner employment will be minimal and Remote Control Centre (RCC) based. As much as 95% of the peak of mariner employment (yet to be reached) will be lost when this
MASS full saturation is reached. The timeline will depend strongly on the speed of technological advances.
Policymakers are advised to take caution with the employment prospects of mariners. Shipowners and builders are advised to collaborate on a global scale to speed up and synchronize MASS development. Training and educational institutions are advised to gear up for teaching skills required for MASS. Maritime legislators are advised to keep a close eye on legislation development aimed at accommodating MASS. Finally, Further research on timelines for MASS implementation is recommended. This will clarify the rate at which employment will evolve in the sector.
Description
Masters Degree. University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban.