Estimating risk determinants of HIV and TB in South Africa.
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Date
2009
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Abstract
Where HIV/AIDS has had its greatest adverse impact is on TB. People with TB
that are infected with HIV are at increased risk of dying from TB than HIV. TB is
the leading cause of death in HIV individuals in South Africa. HIV is the driving
factor that increases the risk of progression from latent TB to active TB. In South
Africa no coherent analysis of the risk determinants of HIV and TB has been done
at the national level this study seeks to mend that gab.
This study is about estimating risk determinants of HIV and TB. This will be
done using the national household survey conducted by Human Sciences Research
Council in 2005. Since individuals from the same household and enumerator area
more likely to be more alike in terms of risk of disease or correlated among each other,
the GEEs will be used to correct for this potential intraclass correlation. Disease
occurrence and distribution is highly heterogeneous at the population, household
and the individual level. In recognition of this fact we propose to model this heterogeneity
at community level through GLMMs and Bayesian hierarchical modelling
approaches with enumerator area indicating the community e ect.
The results showed that HIV is driven by sex, age, race, education, health and
condom use at sexual debut. Factors associated with TB are HIV status, sex,
education, income and health. Factors that are common to both diseases are sex,
education and health. The results showed that ignoring the intraclass correlation can
results to biased estimates. Inference drawn from GLMMs and Bayesian approach
provides some degree of con dence in the results. The positive correlation found at
an enumerator area level for both HIV and TB indicates that interventions should
be aimed at an area level rather than at the individual level.
Description
Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2009
Keywords
Mathematical statistics., Probabilities., HIV infections--South Africa., AIDS (Disease)--Social aspects--South Africa., Tuberculosis--Social aspects., AIDS (Disease)--Statistics.