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Hydrology

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Browsing Hydrology by Author "Kunz, Richard Peter."

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    Assessing climate change impacts on productivity of sugarbeet and sugarcane using aquacrop.
    (2018) Mokonoto, Ofentse.; Kunz, Richard Peter.; Mabhaudhi, Tafadzwanashe.
    Globally, the use of biofuels has grown over the years and their importance in helping to reduce a) dependency on fossil-based fuels and b) greenhouse emissions has been widely recognised. Various feedstocks are used for biofuels, viz. sugar-based crops for bioethanol production and oil from vegetable crops for biodiesel production. The research presented in this study focused on sugar crops such as sugarcane and sugarbeet. The sugarcane industry is widely established in South Africa, whereas sugarbeet is still a new crop and hence, there is little information on its water use efficiency (WUE) and potential yields under South African growing conditions. Overall, there is a need to better understand the agricultural potential and water use requirements of these feedstocks, in order to grow the biofuels industry in South Africa in a sustainable manner. Furthermore, climate change poses a threat to global food security as well as to biofuel feedstock production. There are uncertainties regarding the potential impacts of climate change on the yield and WUE of agricultural crops. One of the main objectives of this study was to calibrate the AquaCrop crop model for sugarcane and sugarbeet using experimental datasets. This study then followed a modelling approach to estimate dry yields and WUEs of these two sugar feedstocks to add to the existing knowledge base for potential biofuel production in South Africa. Sugarbeet was planted at the Ukulinga research farm and field equipment was used to collect data for the calibration of the crop model to better estimate attainable yield and WUE. Growth and yield datasets were provided by the South African Sugarcane Research Institute to calibrate the model for sugarcane, as well as validate AquaCrop for both feedstocks. The performance of the crop model was tested using various statistical methods. The model’s performance was satisfactory after calibrating it for sugarcane. However, the calibration process was compromised by the lack of sufficient leaf area index data. For sugarbeet, AquaCrop simulated the canopy cover, yield and WUE well, but tended to over-estimate observations. For the validation process, simulations closely matched the observed yields for both feedstocks. However, the model’s ability to simulate soil water content at Ukulinga was considered unsatisfactory. The calibrated AquaCrop model was used for long term assessments of yield and WUE. Baseline simulations were undertaken using 50 and 30 years of climate data and the results indicated that the 30 years of data could adequately estimate the long-term attainable productivity of sugarcane and sugarbeet. According to the literature, an ensemble approach to climate change modelling reduces uncertainty in long-term assessments. Hence, climate projections from several global climate models (GCMs), that were downscaled using dynamical and statistical approaches, were obtained and used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on yield and WUE of the selected feedstocks. An increase in yield and WUE of both feedstocks is projected in the distant future. The statistically downscaled GCMs projected higher increases compared to the dynamically downscaled GCMs. Increases in future WUE are much higher compared to yields projections. The so-called “CO2 fertilisation” effect largely benefits C3 crops (sugarbeet) with regards to yield improvements. However, the results also show that C4 crops (sugarcane) also benefit from improved WUE. Both sugarcane and sugarbeet will benefit from the anticipated climate change when planted in February and May, respectively. However, it is recommended that other planting dates should be studied for sugarcane.
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    Estimating water use and yield of soybean (glycine max) under mulch and fertilizer in rainfed conditions in KwaZulu-Natal.
    (2017) Lembede, Lungile Phumelele.; Kunz, Richard Peter.; Mabhaudhi, Tafadzwanashe.
    South Africa is classified as a semi-arid country characterized by low and erratic rainfall. This poses major limitations to crop productivity, especially for smallholder farmers who rely on rainfed agriculture. This is worsened by lack of knowledge regarding best management practices that can improve crop yields attained by smallholder farmers. In addition, smallholder farmers lack access to markets and do not participate in the agricultural value chain. The Biofuel Regulatory Framework (DoE, 2014) seeks to include smallholder farmers in the biofuel feedstock value chain. However, a prerequisite to their meaningful participation in the value chain would be to increase their current levels of crop and water productivity. The main aim of this study was to estimate the yield and water use of soybean (Glycine max L.) under rainfed and smallholder farming conditions using the AquaCrop model. Secondary to this, the effect of mulch and fertilizer on soybean water use efficiency was assessed. Lastly, the Soil Water Balance model (SWB) was used to compare simulations made by AquaCrop for the non-mulched, full fertilizer treatment. Thereafter, the water use efficiency of soybean was calculated from crop water use and the final yield. The soybean trial was carried out at Swayimane, KwaZulu-Natal. The model simulations of crop water use and reference crop evapotranspiration were also used to calculate crop coefficients under non-standard conditions. Crop growth and yield parameters were measured to calibrate and evaluate model performance. Soil water content was monitored using Watermark sensors, along with climatic variables. An analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to detect significant interactions between treatments, while statistical indicators were used to evaluate model performance of AquaCrop and the SWB model. Mulching improved soil water content and reduced soil water evaporation, although the final yield and total water use efficiency was reduced. It is believed the yield reduction in mulched plots was mostly affected by nitrogen immobilization as a result of decaying straw mulch. Increasing soil fertility improved crop yield and water use efficiency in both mulched and non-mulched treatments. The AquaCrop model simulated the final yield and biomass fairly well, except in mulched treatments. The model simulated the highest yield in the mulched, fully fertilized plots, which is contrary to what was observed. This is because the model only accounts for improved soil water content and does not account for the complex interactions between the soil and mulch residue that resulted in nitrogen deficiency. The SWB model simulated fairly similar crop water use and yield to AquaCrop. The water use efficiencies obtained in this study were compared to that derived by Mengistu et al. (2014) for the same cultivar grown in a commercial farming environment at Baynesfield, KwaZulu-Natal. In comparison to commercial farmers, smallholder farmers tend to produce lower water use efficiencies. The modelled water use efficiency reported for Baynesfield was 1.277 kg m-3, compared to 0.359 kg m-3 obtained in this study for the non-mulched, full fertilizer treatment. According to AquaCrop, the mulched, full fertilizer treatment had a water use efficiency of 0.485 kg m-3. It is believed that the latter water use efficiency could have been achieved had enough nitrogen been available to the crop. In conclusion, implementing best management practices can help narrow the yield gap between smallholder and commercial farmers. It was evident from this study and others that agronomic practices have a significant impact on crop yield and ultimately, water use efficiency.