Doctoral Degrees (Finance)

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/10413/17125

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Country risk components and financial asset markets interdependence: evidence from South Africa=Izinkomba-ngozi Zezwe Kanye Nokubambisana Ezimpahleni Zomnotho Ezimaketheni: Ubufakazi Obuvela eNingizimu Afrikha.
(2023) Nhlapho, Rethabile Nokulunga.; Muzindutsi, Paul-Francois.; Obalade, Adefemi Alamu.
Over the last few decades, financial markets have become more interlinked. As a result, there has been an increased demand for information across markets and thus, a need for country-specific risk ratings. Risk ratings are vital for attracting investments and capital inflows in financial markets by providing signals regarding a country’s economic, financial and political fundamentals. However, there remains a lack of consensus on the nature of the relationship between country risk and key asset markets, namely, the stock market, bond market, housing market, and gold and oil markets. This doctoral study evaluates the impact of country risk components on asset returns and their interlinkages for the period from February 2000 to December 2019 within the South African context. The first analytical paper (presented in Chapter 3) evaluates the dynamic relationship between South African asset markets using the Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MSVAR) model. The findings showed that the response of all asset returns to shocks in the economic system was regime-dependent. Moreover, shocks emanating from the exchange rate market and bond market explained most of the variation in the bull and bear regimes. The second paper (presented in Chapter 4) investigates the impact of country risk on various asset markets ing a Non-Linear Autoregressive Lag model (NARDL). This study fills the gap in understanding the reaction of stock, bond, housing, currency, gold and oil markets to positive and negative innovations in country risk components. The findings show evidence of long-run cointegrating relationships between asset returns and country risk components and indicate that country risk components are effective determinants of domestic asset market returns. The third paper (presented in Chapter 5) examines the effects of economic, financial and political risk on asset market linkages using a combination of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (DCC-GARCH) and NARDL models. The findings show that the correlation between asset markets was positive in stable market conditions and showed negative comovements during periods of market turmoil. Financial and political risk ratings were found to be the main drivers of asset market comovements in the short run. Anincrease in South African (domestic) political risk had a larger effect in the long run and was found to be an important determinant of asset return comovements. This result provides evidence suggesting that asset markets are informationally inefficient and changes in financial and political risk ratings can be used to predict price movements. Overall, this doctoral dissertation’s findings highlight the diversification benefits of domestic assets during periods of market uncertainty. Moreover, the results show that examining the different components of country risk provides better insight into the impact of country risk on asset markets. The results of this dissertation have significant implications for asset allocation decisions and risk management. From a policy perspective, it is crucial to formulate policies that address political instability as it plays a pivotal role in determining asset return behaviour, and consequently, the financial stability of the country. Furthermore, the results have implications for traditional asset pricing models that only capture the effects of market risk to predict future asset market behaviour. A more comprehensive understanding of the risks of specific markets is vital for more informed financial decision-making. Future research could extend the scope of the study to investigate the composite political risk factors that explain asset market behaviour. Iqoqa Ukuqagula ngenzuzo yempahla kusemqoka, ikakhulu ezimaketheni ezisathuthuka, ikakhulu ngoba abatshalizimali emhlabeni bazifaka engozini enkulu ngenxa yalezi zimakethe. Okugcina ngokuthi kube nesidingo esikhulu sokuthi amazwe afakwe esikalini njengalokhu ababambi-qhaza kwezomnotho befisa ukunciphisa ubungozi abazifaka kubo. Ukukalwa kobungozi kubalulekile ukuheha abatshali zimali kanye nokuhelela kwengqalabhizinisi emaketheni yezimali ngokunika izinkomba zomnotho, ezezimali kanye nesisekelo sezombangazwe wezwe. Kushosha ukuvulana komsuka wobudlelwane phakathi kobungozi obuthathwa yizwe, singabala isitokwe semakethe, imakethe yesivumelwano sembolekomali, imakethe yezindlu kanye nemakethe yegolide nemakethe kawoyela. Lolu cwaningo luhlole ubudlelwane phakathi kwezimpahla ezisezimakethe eNingizimu Afrikha kusetshenziswa imodeli i-Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MSVAR) nemodeli i-Dynamic Conditional Correlation Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (DCC-GARCH). Umthelela wobungozi obuthathwa yizwe enzuzweni yempahla kanye ne-covariance yayo ihlolwe kusetshenziswa imodeli i-Non-Linear Autoregressive Lag (NARDL). Ngaphezukwakho konke, imiphumela iveze ukwehluka kwenzuzo empahleni yangaphakathi ngesikhathi sokungazinzi kwezimakethe. Imiphumela yocwaningo iveza ukuthi izimpendulo zayo yonke inzuzo yezimpahla azinalo uzinzo kwezomnotho kuncike kuHulumeni osuke uphethe. Ukungazinzi okusukela enanini lokuhwebelana kwezimakethe kanye nesivumelwano sobolekomali ezimaketheni kucacise ukungefani okuningi koHulumeni be-the bull and bear regimes. Ubungozi bezomnotho nezepolitiki kube yikho okuyizizathu zesixakaxaka ezimpahleni zezimakethe, esikhathini esifushane. Ukuthuthuka kobungozi kwezepolitiki eNingizimu Afrikha (ngaphakathi) kube nomthelela ngokuhamba kwesikhathi kwaphinde kwaba nesandla kwi-asset return linkages. Lokhu kuchaza ukuthi izimpahla zezimakethe azinalo ulwazi oluphelele kanye nezinguquko zokukalwa kwezomnotho nezepolitiki kungasetshenziswa ukuqagula ukunyakaza kwamanani. Imiphumela isemqoka kakhulu kubabumbi-zinqubomgomo, kangangoba, izinqubomgomo mazibunjwe ukudambisa ukungazinzi kwezepolitiki njengoba ineqhaza elibalulekile kwezomnotho wezwe. Ngaphezu kwalokho, imiphumela inomthelela kumamodeli ajwayelekile e-asset pricing avame ukuveza umthelela wobungozi bezimakethe ukuqagula ikusasa lezimpahla nemikhuba yakhona. Ukuqonda ubungozi ngokusabalele kwezimakethe kubalulekile ekuthathweni kwezinqumo ezinqala kwezomnotho.
Credit referencing, bank lending methodologies and SME access to finance in Ghana=Ukubheka izikweletu, Izindlela Zokuboleka ebhange, kanye Nokufinyelela Kwama-SME Kwezezimali eGhana.
(2021) Gyimah, Kofi Nyarko.; Muzindutsi, Paul-Francois.; Akande, Joseph Olorunfemi.
Academic as well as policymakers acknowledge the importance that access to credit to entrepreneurs plays in stirring the economic growth and development in both developed and developing countries. Despite the increasing use of use different lending methodologies in their dealings with Small and Medium Scale Enterprises (SMEs), a significant segment of SMEs are yet to benefit from these methodologies. This study examined the association between bank lending methodologies, Credit Reference Information (CRI), and SMEs ' access to credit in Ghana. This study adopted a mixed-methods research approach characterised by the quantitative (cross-sectional) approach and qualitative technique. The accessible population of SMEs was 2,354, out of which a sample of 1,061 SMEs was determined using the simple random sampling method. The sample applied to the qualitative aspect of the study was eight managers who were selected using the purposive sampling method. A survey questionnaire and interview were used to gather data. Quantitative data were analysed using Pearson’s correlation test, Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA), and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression analysis. Thematic analysis was employed to analyse qualitative data from interviews. Data analysis revealed that two domains of methodologies, namely Collateral Based Records (CBRs) and Personal Business Characteristics (PBCs), were applied to the participants to a great extent. The average scores associated with these dimensions were significantly higher than the median of the measurement scale. Furthermore, responses from the qualitative analysis suggest that CBRs as a methodology were more applied, but financial institutions also applied PBCs. Applying the two methodologies is necessary as they play unique roles in lending, though CBRs better cushions banks against default. This implies that both transaction-based and relationship-based lending methodologies are applied mainly by banks in Ghana though transaction-based lending is the most applied. The study contributed to the literature by proposing a framework of steps that SMEs in Ghana can take towards successful loan applications. Iqoqa Ucwaningo luhlole ukuhlobana phakathi kwezindlela zokuboleka amabhange, i-CRI, nama-SME ukuthola isikweletu e-Ghana. Nakuba izincwadi zangaphambili zenza ukungabaza emandleni alezi zindlela ezimbili zokubikezela ngempumelelo ukufinyelela kwezikweletu kumafemu ama-SME, lolu cwaningo lubonisa ukuthi i-CRI inyusa amandla alezi zindlela zokuboleka ukuze zisize ukuthuthukisa ukufinyelela kwesikweletu. Lolu cwaningo lwamukele indlela yocwaningo exubile ebonakala ngendlela yobuningi (i-cross-sectional) kanye nezindlela zekhwalithi. Inani labantu abafinyelelekayo lama-SME laliyizinkulungwane ezimbili amakhulu amathathu namashumi amahlanu nane (2,354) lapho isampula lama-SME liyinkulungwane eyodwa namashumi ayisithupha nanye (1,061) anqunywa kusetshenziswa indlela elula yokusampula engahleliwe. Isampula esetshenziswe esicini sekhwalithi yocwaningo bekungabaphathi abayisiyishiyagalombili (8) abakhethwe kusetshenziswa indlela yesampula eyinhloso. Imininingo yaqoqwa ngokusetshenziswa kwemibuzo yocwaningo kanye nezingxoxo. Imininingo yobuningi yahlaziywa ngokuhlolwa kokuhlobanisa kuka-Pearson, ukuhlaziya i-Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA), kanye nokuhlaziywa kokuhlehla kwe-Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). Ukuhlaziywa ngokwengikimba kwasetshenziswa ukuze kuhlaziywe imininingo yekhwalithi evela ezingxoxweni. Ukuhlaziywa kwemininingo kuthole ukuthi izizinda ezimbili zezindlela, okuyi-Collateral Based Records (CBRs) kanye nezimo zebhizinisi lomuntu siqu, phecelezi, i-Personal Business Characteristics (PBC), zisetshenziswe kubahlanganyeli ngezinga eliphezulu. Okusho ukuthi, izikolo ezimaphakathi ezihlotshaniswa nalezi zilinganiso beziphezulu kakhulu kunemidiyeni yesikali sokulinganisa. Izimpendulo ezivela ekuhlaziyweni kwekhwalithi ziphakamisa ukuthi ama-CBR njengendlela yokusebenza asetshenziswa kakhulu kodwa ama-PBC nawo asetshenziswa izikhungo zezezimali. Ukusetshenziswa kwalezi zindlela ezimbili kuyadingeka njengoba zidlala indima eyingqayizivele ekubolekeni, nakuba ama-CBR evikela kangcono amabhange ngokuzenzakalelayo. Umthelela walokhu ukuthi amabhange womabili izindlela zokuboleka ezisekelwe ekwenziweni kanye nezisekelwe ebudlelwaneni zisetshenziswa kakhulu amabhange aseGhana nakuba imali ebolekiwe esekelwe entendeni isetshenziswa kakhulu. Ucwaningo lube negalelo ekubhalweni ngokuphakamisa uhlaka lwezinyathelo ama-SME aseGhana angazithatha ukuze afake isicelo semalimboleko esiyimpumelelo.
Equity super sectors connectedness and its determinants: evidence from the Johannesburg Stock Exchange.
(2023) Babatunde, Samuel Lawrence.; Doorasamy, Mishelle.; Obalade, Adefemi A.
Everything depends on everything else. More importantly, macroeconomic and financial connections have proved to be more fundamental compared with others. The reality of dynamic connectedness and time varying correlation as precursors to contagion and systemic risk are proven through the super sectors, namely the Automobile and Parts, Chemical, Telecommunication, Technology, Energy, Health, Finance, Insurance and General Industrial super sectors of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, with daily sample period from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2021. The first objective is to determine the systematically important super sectors in the different extreme periods. The second objective is to determine the return linkages of the equity super sector, while the third objective is to examine the dynamic connectedness and the shock propagation among the super sectors during the extreme risk events. Finally, the fourth objective is to evaluate the determinants of volatility connectedness of the JSE equity super sectors. The different extreme events considered alongside the full sample periods for this study are the 2007/2008 Global financial crisis (GFC), the 2009-2011 European Debt Crisis (EDC), the 2017-2018 U.S-China trade war (U.S-China TWR) and the late 2019-2021 COVID-19 pandemic. This study employs the Page et al., (1999) model with the Granger causality model of Billio et al., (2012) to accomplish objective one. While in objective two, the DECO-GARCH model of Engle and Kelly (2012) was employed to establish the time varying equicorrelations status of the super sectors through the rolling window analysis. For objective three, the realised volatilities of the super sectors were obtained through the Garman and Klass (1980) model and thereafter, the dynamic connectedness and direction of propagation were determined through the Diebold and Yilmaz (2009, 2012 and 2014) model alongside the TVP-VAR of Antonakakis et al., (2020). The study further employed the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to determine the asymmetrically significant determinants of total sectorial volatility connectedness of the JSE market in the fourth objective. Findings from this study revealed the Telecommunication super sector is the most systematically important super sector during the full sample size analysis. It was revealed that the equicorrelation of the super sectors is positive and high, this was also the case for the rolling window results except for the years not within the extreme period, yet the least equicorrelation was 0.1491 for the year 2012-2013, while the highest was 0.7022 for the COVID-19 pandemic period. It was also established that the total connectedness of the sample period and the different extreme periods were high, suggesting a high interconnectedness of the super sectors. Lastly, the determinant estimation results show LSAVI, LDMR and LEPU as the asymmetrically significant drivers of total sectorial volatility connectedness on the JSE market. This study is the first to investigate sectorial connectedness, equicorrelation and the determinants of volatility connectedness in South Africa and in Africa at large. This study contributes to the limited literature on systemically important equity super sectors and sectorial dynamic connectedness and dynamic equicorrelation in the emerging market. First the result shows that the Telecommunication sector is the most important node for the EDC, the U.SChina trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic periods. While the Insurance and the Energy are the highest ranked super sectors amongst the network of super sectors for the full sample period and for the GFC period, hence making these super sectors the most systemically important nodes during these selected periods. It also shows that the sectorial common equicorrelation on the JSE is high and time varying with higher values for the year where extreme events occurred such as the GFC, EDC, and the COVID-19 pandemic period. This result is also a revelation that during the period of financial or economic crisis correlation of sectors are high compared to non-crisis periods. Third, the dynamic connectedness results show that the sectors on the JSE are interconnected and a shock to one sector can have a spillover effect on another close sector in the value-chain. Fourth, the South African volatility index, the Economic Policy Uncertainty and the Domestic Market Return are symmetrically and asymmetrically significant determinants of the sectorial volatility connectedness of JSE market. These findings from this study have implications for economic policy makers, portfolio and fund managers, foreign and local investors, sector regulators and researchers/academics in the field of finance.
Financial development, economic freedom, innovative facilities, economic wellbeing and Inclusive finance in Sub-Saharan Africa.
(2023) Nutassey, Victoria Abena.; Sibanda, Mabutho.; Nomlala, Bomi Cyril.
This thesis presents three empirical papers that seek to improve inclusive finance and economic wellbeing in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Employing a generalized method of moment for 30 SSA countries: The first paper concerned itself with the role of regulation in the relationship between financial development and inclusive finance. It found a significant positive direct effect of financial development on inclusive finance and a significant positive direct influence of regulation on financial inclusion, but found a significant positive role of regulation in the relationship between financial development and inclusive finance up to a threshold of 6.3354, above which regulation negatively modulates. This suggests that when regulation exceeds that threshold of 6.3354 in SSA, it subsequently hinders the financial sector from rendering enough services that can help improve inclusive finance. Hence, policymakers should always check the mean of their economies' regulations against the threshold of 6.3354 before deciding whether to be more restrictive or not. Also, Paper two sheds light on the collaborative role of innovative facilities and economic freedom in inclusive finance. The study recorded that improving economic freedom promotes financial inclusion while expanding innovative facilities in SSA inhibits it. Again, innovative facilities improve the impact of economic freedom on inclusive finance in SSA but subsequently diminish the effect of economic freedom on inclusive finance after certain thresholds. This implies that in SSA, innovative facilities-induced freedom-inclusive finance is relevant only when it has not covered certain thresholds because undesirable results are revealed after the thresholds. Thus, technical and financial knowledge should be enhanced in addition to lowering the cost of using innovative facilities to access financial services to prevent negative influence after the thresholds. Paper three assessed the complementary role of economic freedom on the influence of inclusive finance on economic wellbeing. The findings revealed that financial inclusion enhances the wellbeing of residents, economic freedom improves the wellbeing of the populace and a free environment maximizes the role of inclusive finance on economic wellbeing in SSA. Hence, less restrictions are recommended to be adopted by policymakers in SSA when it comes to enhancing financial inclusion's influence on economic wellbeing.
Investor overconfidence under the adaptive markets hypothesis in selected African stock markets.
(2023) Nyasha, Jameson.; Muzindutsi, Paul-Francois.; Olarewaju, Odunayo Magret.; Muguto, Lorraine.
Meticulous empirical research remains to determine whether the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis (AMH) or the more widely known Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) better explains investor overconfidence and stock return volatility behaviour. Investor overconfidence is vital in understanding why investment strategies are pursued so aggressively, leading to excessive market trading. It is often argued that the investor overconfidence bias makes markets less efficient because it creates pricing errors in extreme volatility and overestimates investors’ beliefs in the accuracy of their forecasts of their quotes on prices. This research analyses the effect of investor overconfidence on the volatility of stock market returns according to the AMH in seven African stock markets, including the Casablanca Stock Exchange, the Egyptian Exchange, the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, the Nigerian Stock Exchange, the Nairobi Stock Exchange, the Ghana Stock Exchange, and the Stock Exchange of Mauritius. The sample period includes secondary time series data from January 2005 to December 2019. The first goal was to develop and validate a measure of investor overconfidence. The second objective was to compare different levels of investor overconfidence in the selected African stock markets. The third objective was to evaluate the influence of investor overconfidence on the volatility of stock market return under changing market conditions, as described by the AMH. The estimation methods included the Generalised Methods of Moments dummy regression, regime-switching VAR models and rolling GARCH models, which are GARCH, EGARCH and TARCH. The results show that high investor overconfidence is more associated with bullish markets than periods of financial crises and bearish markets. The results also imply that it is not advisable to generalise the impact of market conditions on investor overconfidence across all the markets. Additionally, rolling GARCH estimates demonstrated that patterns of investor overconfidence evolve, consistent with the AMH. Assessing investor overconfidence under the AMH framework offers a stronger image of the adaptive behaviour of the Afri can equity markets. This research adds to existing knowledge in numerous ways. Foremost, it provides a standard measure of investor overconfidence in Africa’s equity markets. A measure that combines multiple proxies into a single index and neutralizes the disadvantages of each proxy when used separately to estimate investor overconfidence. Second, it provides a timely contribution to the effect of investor overconfidence on stock return volatility in African equity markets under the AMH paradigm. Third, according to the AMH, investor confidence is not vi static and can appear under specific market conditions and disappear under others. This bias occurs and disappears as market conditions change in the chosen African equity exchanges. This also shows that investor overconfidence is normal, changes over time and is adaptable in the African stock markets. Consequently, this study brings a new perspective regarding investor overconfidence and market efficiency in the face of the AMH paradigm. The results also have important implications for investors and brokers wishing to develop appropriate trading strategies. This study is also helpful for policymakers as they need to be wary about investor overconfidence impact on market momentum in periods of market expansion. This study argues that investor overconfidence in African stock markets conforms to the AMH than the EMH and the BF.

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