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Masters Degrees (Economics)

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/10413/6941

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Browsing Masters Degrees (Economics) by SDG "SDG17"

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    Measuring the economic costs of trade protection in South Africa.
    (2025) Molapo, Rethabile.; Kohler , Marcel Rene Anton Robert.
    This dissertation investigates the economic cost of trade protection on South Africa's economy through a panel analysis from 2010 to 2022, focusing on South Africa’s trade with 127 partner countries. The Gravity model serves as the main estimation framework for the study as it provides a detailed observation of international trade. The Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation approaches serve as the main methods used to measure the effectiveness of the gravity model in the study. Through comparisons between OLS and PPML the study observes the elasticities of the determinants of trade across the OLS and PPML and affirms the need to focus on the PPML which reveals more reliable estimates which are neither underestimated nor overestimated the study confirms that trade protection leads to less trade activity, it will result to a reduction in gains from exports which is important in influencing the economic growth of South Africa. The research includes an in-depth analysis of tariffs, both as a standalone measure and as a variable within the gravity model as the main form of protectionism in international trade. The study highlights the evolving role of tariffs in trade protection and concludes that tariffs may have been overstated as a standalone measure of trade protection in studies of international trade. The study shows that tariffs have a more significant influence on trade in the PPML model as opposed to the OLS and the study shows that the PPML explains a larger degree of the effects on trade flows than the OLS does. The findings in the study suggest that the PPML method should be used for South Africa’s gravity model simulations due to the reliable elasticities that the model returns.
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    The impact of oil price fluctuations on the South African exchange rate.
    (2025) Moabelo , Noko Kgaogelo.; Nyati , Malibongwe Cyprian.
    This study investigates the nature of the relationship and the effects of changes in oil prices on South Africa's exchange rate. It fills an essential gap in comprehending how oil price shocks influence emerging market economic dynamics. South Africa is heavily dependent on imported oil, with 90% of the country’s oil and petroleum needs coming from imported sources, and the exchange rate is overly sensitive to fluctuations in oil prices. Through the use of a Bayesian Vector Auto Regressive (BVAR) model, this study examines the connections in the period from 2000-2022 between oil prices, the South African Rand (ZAR), and key macroeconomic indicators, like the Consumer Price Index (CPI), interest rates, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The study finds that the initial oil price shock to exchange rates is weakly positive in the short run, reflecting a 1% increase in oil prices, leading to a 0.08% exchange rate appreciation. This response is, however, very short-lived, as after the initial shock, results reflect a negative relationship in the long run. The study also finds an asymmetrical relationship between oil prices and exchange rates. These effects become more pronounced when global uncertainty is at its peak. This study aligns with studies such as those by Korley and Giouvris (2022), which highlight how shifts in oil prices affect exchange rates through trade balance and inflation pressures. By incorporating the concept of asymmetry into the study, this research yields information on how vulnerable the Rand is to sudden increases in oil prices, providing essential data for policymakers. The findings have implications for shaping policies in South Africa. Exchange rate stability strategies could involve diversifying energy sources and introducing risk hedging methods while striving for stability through flexible monetary and fiscal policies. This research also adds to the ongoing conversation about the susceptibility of emerging market currencies to external pressures, serving as a reference point for examining comparable economies. This research enriches the existing body of knowledge by addressing methodological gaps and providing a contemporary analysis of South Africa's exchange rate dynamics in a post-crisis global economy.