College of Law and Management Studies

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Health inequality and healthcare policies’ efficacy across areas with different deprivation levels within South Africa.
(2024) Dlamini , Msawenkosi Milton.; Mbonigaba , Josue.
Despite South Africa's efforts to reduce socio-economic inequalities since 1994 through policies like the Reconstruction and Development Programme and the Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment Act, significant disparities remain. While these policies aimed to improve access to services and provide economic opportunities for marginalised communities, their impact has been limited. As a result, health disparities persist, challenging the effectiveness of existing health policies. This thesis seeks to fill a research gap by assessing health inequalities and the efficacy of healthcare policies across regions with varying levels of deprivation in South Africa. It is structured around four interconnected analyses. The first analysis investigates the impact of localised deprivation on adult health across different areas (traditional authority, formal rural, and formal and informal urban regions) using ordered probit models and data from the National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS). The findings reveal significant health disparities, especially in informal urban areas, where increased deprivation is strongly correlated with poor self-rated health. This highlights the need for targeted health interventions in these regions. The second analysis explores socio-economic inequalities in chronic illnesses and disabilities among children utilising concentration indices, Oaxaca-Blinder Decomposition, and NIDS data from the 2008 and 2017 waves. The results show stark disparities, with children from wealthier households in formal urban areas benefiting from better health outcomes, while poorer children in informal urban areas are disadvantaged. The third analysis examines diabetes prevalence among South African adults using standardised concentration indices, decomposition techniques and NIDS data. It uncovers varying socio-economic disparities across regions, with some areas showing reduced inequalities while others show increasing disparities. The final analysis looks at the relationship between public health expenditure and health outcomes from 2005 to 2019 across South African provinces employing two-way fixed effects panel models data from multiple sources. It finds that higher per capita health spending is paradoxically associated with lower life expectancy, indicating inefficiencies in resource allocation. Overall, the study underscores the need for tailored, region-specific healthcare policies to address the diverse challenges and reduce health inequalities across South Africa.
Investigating South Africa’s exposure to potential currency crises.
(2025) Hadebe , Ntokozo Thabiso.; Nyati , Malibongwe Cyprian.; Msomi , Simiso Sinqumo Sanele Gary.
This study investigates South Africa's potential exposure to currency crises, aiming to identify effective economic indicators for anticipating such crises. Using annual data from 1994 to 2020, a probit model analysis and the Market Turbulence Index (MTI) are employed to facilitate this investigation. The results suggest that none of the 10 variables identified in empirical literature have predictive power in the South African context. The insignificant findings can be attributed to data frequency restrictions, as annual data was used instead of daily, weekly, or monthly data due to limited public access to monthly statistics. The study concludes that the modelling approach employed may not be helpful for policymakers and central banks in predicting currency crises in South Africa. However, the use of higher frequency data and additional variables, such as political instability, may improve the significance and predictability of currency crises. Despite the insignificant results, the study highlights the potential adoption of the MTI in identifying crisis thresholds. With higher frequency data and more influential variables, this study can contribute significantly to the literature, particularly in a country like South Africa with a volatile economic climate.
Investor sentiments and performance of ESG funds in emerging and developed markets.
(2024) Aboluwodi , Damilola Muyiwa.; Muzindutsi , Paul-Francois.; Nomlala , Bomi Cyril.
The niche of sustainable finance, despite relatively new, has become a mainstay in the discourse of global finance. Whilst there are multiple factors driving the research interest in this space, chief amongst this, is the purported consequentiality of sustainability concerns that is relatable to even people lacking financial knowledge. In this light, this study sought to examine the impact of investor sentiments on Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) index returns and risk performance under bull and bear market conditions in emerging (BRICS) and developed (G7) markets. The study further examined the nature of volatility and the impact of investor sentiments, as well as the return and volatility spillovers among countries within and across the emerging and developed markets. Using the Morgan Stanley Composite Index (MSCI) ESG data from 01/10 /2007 to 31/12/2022, a composite investor sentiments (CIS) index was constructed using eight fundamental market sentiment proxies, which were further included in the empirical models employed. Firstly, employing a Markov Regime Switching Model, the study examined the impact of investor sentiment on ESG performance in bull and bear market conditions. Herein, findings of the study noted that investor sentiment impacts the performance of ESG funds in emerging markets more than in developed markets regardless of market conditions. More so, whilst the study established ESG performance varies across bull and bear conditions, from the standpoint of ESG return performance, the study established that emerging ESG markets performed better in bull market condition and developed ESG markets performed better in bear market condition. Conversely, from the dimension of ESG volatility performance, the study established that developed markets exhibited a higher volatility in bull market condition and emerging markets exhibited higher volatility in bear market condition. Secondly, adopting GARCH models such as the EGARCH, GJR-GARCH and GARCH-X models, the study evaluated the nature of volatility and the influence of investor sentiments on volatility of ESG funds in emerging and developed markets. Within this context, the research findings based on the mean equation coefficient suggest that there is a weak-form of market efficiency across emerging and developed ESG market blocs except the USA ESG market. Also, the study empirically established that based on the leverage effect, negative shocks (bad news) are more likely to increase the volatility of ESG returns than positive shocks (good news) in both emerging and developed market blocs. Additionally, the study established that although investor sentiments impacts the volatility of ESG returns regardless of market characterizations, emerging ESG markets are extensively more susceptible to investor sentiments than developed ESG markets. Thirdly, utilizing a Multivariate GARCH models such as the DCC-VARMA-AGARCH, DCCVARMA- GARCH and the CCC-VARMA-AGARCH models, the study explored the nature of return and volatility spillovers dynamics within and across emerging and developed ESG markets. In this regard, findings of the study evidenced that although there is evidence of return spillovers across emerging and developed ESG markets, ESG returns in emerging markets are likely to be adversely affected by the spillovers from developed markets. Also, the study also established that although there is evidence of return spillovers across emerging and developed markets, the developed ESG market bloc especially the USA and the EU, have significant volatility spillover influence on the volatility of emerging ESG markets. In addition to this, the findings of the study further established that negative shocks (bad news) from developed markets increases the volatility spillovers of ESG returns in emerging markets by more than positive shocks (good news), not viceversa. In general, these findings accentuate diverse implications from the standpoint of several finance theories. Most evidently, from the perspective of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) theory, the findings challenge the notion of market efficiency by suggesting that investor sentiment can influence the performance of ESG funds, indicating potential inefficiencies in pricing. Likewise, from the standpoint of behavioral finance theory, the findings emphasize the importance of psychological factors in investment decision-making, highlighting how investor sentiment drives market outcomes. Lastly, the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH) theory acknowledges the dynamic nature of markets and the role of investor behavior in shaping them, suggesting that the impact of sentiment on ESG fund performance is adaptive to market conditions. This research contributes to the finance literatures in the sphere of sustainable finance and ESG investing. In particular, this study offers novel critical contributions on how investor sentiment is intertwined with the discourse of ESG performance, risk and risk spillovers across market conditions and characterizations. Given these empirical revelations, this study recommends that individual and institutional stakeholders keen on sustainability concerns and ESG investing should consider the influence of market conditions on ESG performance, the distinctiveness of ESG market characterizations with regards to returns and risk spillovers, the subsisting relationships among ESG markets as well as the overarching impact of investor sentiments on ESG performance and volatility. Thus, the empirical establishments of this research are relevant for investment decision making, risk management, global financial markets and development of sustainable finance theory.
Perceptions of the use of IsiZulu Termbank Technology at University of KwaZulu-Natal.
(2023) Hadebe, Njabulo.; Jere, Ntabeni.; Govender, Irene.
Abstract available in PDF.
The relationship between social capital and mental health in South Africa: a comparison by gender.
(2024) Mancwatela , Azasiwe.; Vermaak , Claire Lauren.; Dobreva , Ralitza Vassileva.
Social capital, which encompasses the strength of social networks, trust, and community ties, has received growing attention for its influence on mental well-being. Research shows that social capital plays a key role in promoting positive mental health and protecting against mental health challenges, particularly depression. This study examines the relationship between social capital and mental health in South Africa, with a particular focus on how gender may shape these dynamics. Globally, a wide range of studies have demonstrated that social capital can protect against depression and other mental health issues. In South Africa, however, the impact of social capital is particularly complex, shaped by the country’s history of colonialism, apartheid, and social fragmentation. Understanding how social capital influences mental health in this context is crucial for addressing mental health challenges in the country. Using longitudinal data from the National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS), which provides a detailed picture of South African society, this study explores the relationship between social capital and depression for African adults. Depression is measured using the CESD-10 score, which rates the extent of depression on a continuous scale, as well as a binary measure of depression. The study takes a gendered approach to examine how the relationship between social capital and mental health may differ for men and women, using statistical methods such as pooled OLS, fixed effects, and logit fixed effects models. The study finds that neighbourhood crime and violence are strongly linked to higher levels of depression for both genders, with men being more vulnerable to these environmental stressors. Neighbourhood attachment acts as a protective factor for women, reducing depression. The findings suggest that for men, religious and communal activities provide essential emotional support, while women may benefit from a wider range of social networks. Additionally, the quality of trust with neighbours plays a more significant role in men’s mental health.
The tracking performance of equity exchange traded funds: a consideration of fund replication strategy, fund domicile and crisis period.
(2024) Naidoo, Prianca.; Mccullough, Kerry-Ann Frances.
An Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is an investment vehicle that issues securities that are essentially claims on an underlying pool of assets. Tracking error measures, the ability of traditional passive ETFs to replicate the returns of their respective underlying index accurately. This measure is commonly reported for all funds with a mandate to replicate some benchmark index. Despite the primarily passive nature of ETFs, fund managers can apply active investment management techniques to them. The application of active management to these funds may include the respective index holding an actively selected basket of securities or entering derivative contracts that deliver the performance of an index, or some mixture of the two. The importance of looking at the passive and active characteristics of funds corresponds to the replication strategies followed by ETFs. Here replication refers to the concept of mirroring the returns of a benchmark index with the returns of an ETF. Bloomberg Professional’s categorisation of replication strategies shows that ETFs replicate their benchmark indices using the following strategies: full physical, stratified sampling, optimization, synthetic and leveraged replication. This study analyses the tracking performance of 52 equity-backed ETFs, focusing on replication strategies, fund domicile, and crisis period. Four methods of tracking error estimation are applied to the ETF sample which have an inception date before 1 January 2006 or 1 January 2012 for the fund replication and domicile analyses due to the observed lack of ETFs following certain replication strategies and domiciled in emerging markets with an inception before 2006. For the crisis analysis the research period spans 18 years to account for the documented price impacts the 2008/2009 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic had on various indices and their replicating funds. We find that overall partial physically replicated ETFs provide superior tracking performance. Full physically replicated ETFs exhibit the highest level of tracking error. Synthetic ETFs demonstrate superior tracking performance in comparison to full physical ETFs. Considering the same underlying benchmark index, leveraged ETFs with lower leverage multipliers exhibit lower levels of tracking errors than their counterparts. ETFs domiciled in developed markets limit tracking errors to a greater extent than emerging market ETFs and synthetic ETFs show superior tracking performance when tracking emerging market indices. All fund replication strategies (noting that leveraged ETFs are excluded in this section of the analysis) for both emerging and developed market ETFs show increases in tracking error during the GFC and the COVID-19 pandemic. Optimized ETFs exhibited the highest increase in tracking error during the GFC while full physically replicated ETFs exhibited the highest increase during the pandemic. Synthetic ETFs showed the most resilience to the effects of the pandemic. Emerging ETFs exhibited higher increases in tracking error during both crises in comparison to those in developed markets. This study provides both institutional and individual investors with valuable knowledge on the consideration of fund replication strategy, fund domicile and the performance effects of documented crisis periods when selecting an appropriate ETF. Investors and portfolio managers are provided with relevant insights on which type of ETF replication to follow in countries with different development levels and during volatile market periods. Partial physical replication provides superior tracking performance when focusing solely on replication strategy. Synthetic ETFs are recommended when investing in emerging market indices and aiming to minimize exposure to volatile markets marked by crises.

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