Understanding provincial differentials in adult mortality in South Africa.
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Date
2020
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Abstract
This research focuses on estimating the levels, and understanding the differentials of adult
mortality (generally, between the ages 15 to 60) within South Africa, across provincial
boundaries. The cross-sectional study explores indirect methods of estimation, specifically
through the Orphanhood method to determine conditional survivorship probabilities which can
be used to estimate conditional levels of adult mortality, taking into consideration factors such
as the changing impact of HIV/AIDS. In addition to this, an exploration of household deaths
data is included in the efforts to provide a robust analysis of adult mortality estimates in
producing a clearer lifetable from birth to 85+. Data used to determine such estimates as well
as uncovering provincial differentials are obtained from the Community Survey of 2016 (CS
2016), published by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) (2016). The 3 main data sets utilised
includes the Person/Individual file; the Household Deaths file; and the Mortality file (Statistics
South Africa, 2016). Essentially, the study seeks to understand the provincial differences in
adult mortality, taking into consideration contextual impacts such as sociodemographic and
socioeconomic factors. Underlying these impacts is a discussion on the determinants of health
framework adapted from Mosley and Chen (1984) and more recently, the dynamics of adult
mortality (Sartorius et al., 2013). In doing so, the study will seek to provide an understanding
of the parameters of indirectly calculating adult mortality experienced in South Africa, and
how these are affected by household data as opposed to individual data.
Description
Masters Degree. University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban.