An optimisation model for the management of transformers in the Eskom East Grid Transmission System.
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Date
2009
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Abstract
The successes or failures one experiences in life depend greatly on the
decisions that one makes. This is not only true in one’s personal life but is
also the case in the business environment. In this modern world, simple and
complex decisions are the key elements for a business to be successful in the
competitive global environment. Effective decision making is an intricate
process. In Eskom it is important to integrate the technological and business
aspects to support the decision making process. Research methodology
provides one with the necessary tools to support this decision making.
The main focus of the study is the development of an Optimisation Model for
the Management of Transformers in the Eskom East Grid Transmission
Sysytem. In the Eskom Transmission system, there are a large number of
power transformers which are the most expensive and strategically important
component of the Transmission system.
There were three main objectives. The first objective included the forecasting
of transformer failures using the forecasting techniques of moving average,
weighted moving average, exponential smoothing and regression analysis.
The second objective focused on the investigation of the re – location of the
tap changer maintenance team to a new area using the mathematical and
statistical methods of simulation and decision tree analysis. The third objective
included the investigation of an inventory control and management model
where the optimum number of spares pertaining to transformer units that
should be made available was determined using the mathematical and
statistical model called the economic order quantity. These objectives were
then used to investigate the development of the optimisation model pertaining
to transformers.
The results of the study concluded that the operating research techniques
which included the forecasting methods and the economic order quantity
models were suitable for research in Eskom. However it is important to note
that the Eskom system and the environment in which transformers operate in
is dynamic and has some factors that cannot be controlled. These factors
must be taken into consideration when the various models are used in the
investigation of the optimisation model. The introduction of these external
factors is beyond the scope of this study and is not included. It was concluded
that the simulation and decision tree analysis could be used as an integral
part of the optimisation model successfully.
The limitations that were highlighted included the integrity of the secondary
data (sample size, the source of the secondary data, data quality and data
governance), the limitations associated with forecasting, the limitations of the
operations research, mathematical and statistical models and the fact that the
Eskom network is dynamic. .
The recommendations included the application of the forecasting techniques
and the inventory control model to a larger population size which was that of
the transformers in the entire Transmission system. It was indicated that
Eskom resources, time and money must be used to support the business’s
strategy to train and develop employees to an acceptable competency level.
Future studies should include the factors that affect forecasting and the
implementation of the inventory control model to increase the accuracy of the
results. The introduction of these external factors is beyond the scope of this
study and was not included in the models.
Description
Thesis (MBA)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Westville, 2009.
Keywords
Electric transformers--Management., Electric power production--Management., Theses--Business administration.