Multi-temporal mapping and projection of urban land-use-land-cover change : implication on urban green spaces.

Abstract

This study determines and predicts multi-temporal Land-Use-Land-Cover Change (LULC) in a peripheral urban landscape over a 22 year period in relation to the study area‘s greenery. A change detection analysis using post classification Maximum Likelihood algorithm on three multispectral SPOT-4 images was used to determine land-cover transformation. To predict future land coverage, a Land-Cover Change Modeler (LCM) and a Markov Chain were used. Results show that between the year 2000-2006, 2006-2011 and 2000-2011 the study area experienced varied changes in the different LULCs. Built-up areas increased by 10.08%, 3.15% and 13.23% in 2000-2006, 2006-2011, and 2000-2011 respectively. Areas covered by thicket decreased by 0.59% in 2000-2006 but increased by 0.56%, 0.07% in 2006-2011 and 2000-2011 respectively. Forest land-cover increased by 2.59% in 2000-2006, 2.82% in 2006-2011, and 5.41% in 2000-2011. Grassland declined by 8.46% and 2.64% in 2000-2006 and 2000-2011 respectively while degraded grassland declined by 3.62%, 12.45% and 16.07% in 2000-2006, 2006-2011, and 2000-2011 respectively. Projection results indicate a consistent pattern of growth or decline to those experienced between 2000-2011. This study provides insight into LULC patterns within the eThekwini metro area and offers invaluable understanding of the transformation of the urban green spaces. Key words: Land-Use-Land-Cover Change, Change detection, Land-Cover Change Modeler, Markov Chain Process, Land-Cover Change Prediction.