Climate change projections and public behaviour towards adopting integrated mitigation and adaptation approaches at a household level in urban areas, the eThekwini Municipality, KwaZulu-Natal.
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Date
2018
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Abstract
Globally since the 1970s, the temperature has increased rapidly and remains unpredictable because of
its accelerating pace (Thompson, 2010). This has increased the frequency and intensity of daily
temperature, together with humidity and extreme heat waves. This has further resulted to increased
heat-mortality and decreasing cold-related deaths; extreme flooding; droughts and/or extreme
wildfires in some locations. Urban areas around the round are not free from such climate change
impacts, and could be compounded with project climate change. Against this backdrop, the aim of this
study is to evaluate local climate projections against past, current and future trends and to evaluate
public behaviour towards adopting integrated climate change mitigation and adaptation approaches at
a household level in urban areas, in the eThekwini Municipality, KwaZulu-Natal Province, South
Africa.
To achieve this aim of this study, temperature, precipitation, and humidity anomaly trends in the
eThekwini Municipality from were 1957-2014 were evaluated. Representative Concentration
Pathways (RCP) 8.5 W/m–2
radiative forcing from the Climate Systems Analysis Group (CSAG) was
used to evaluate projected mean annual trends in maximum and minimum temperature, and
precipitation. RCP 8.5 W/m–2
radiative forcing was also used to identify mean monthly anomaly
trends for maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, hot days, dry spells and heat stress for
the years 2016-2090. The radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m–2 is the projected future condition of extreme
warming and predicts that mitigation alone will not change the circumstances of global warming and
local climate change. The projections are based on an increasing population growth, the lowest rate in
the development of technology, high poverty, and increasing emissions. The projected results reveal
that the eThekwini Municipality will continue to undergo fluctuating trends in maximum and
minimum temperature, precipitation, and humidity and this will exacerbate future projected heat
stress, heat spells, dry spells and hot days.
The synergy between mitigation and adaptation is necessary to avoid the extreme impacts of climate
change. The urban household sector is argued to drive climate change action and build adaptive
capacity to risks that are unavoidable. To assess public behaviour towards adopting integrated climate
change mitigation and adaptation approaches, 100 questionnaires were distributed to urban
households in the eThekwini Municipality. Key informants from the Environmental Planning and
Climate Protection Department (EPCPD) and South African Weather Service (SAWS) were also
interviewed on various aspects of climate change. This was supplemented by focus group interviews
with delegates from the Durban Adaptation Charter and Climate Reality Workshop,
The assessment of public behaviour and responses towards adopting integrated mitigation and
adaptation approaches at a household level in urban areas show that short-term curtailment measures
overarch long-term efficient measures. Urban households have demonstrated some level of awareness
towards climate change and its associated impacts. It was found that local perceptions and behavioural
responses to mitigate and adapt to climate change was shaped by governmental institutions and their
involvement within urban communities in the eThekwini Municipality. Transformational and integral
theories hold significance in changing the old dynamics of incremental, business-as-usual approaches
into a proactive integration of mitigation and adaptation. This is a new approach to understanding that
the rate of climate change is progressing, and transformational change is required in national and
regional policy, which can invoke change at a local level and change urban household perceptions and
responses to climate change.
Description
Masters Degree. University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban.