Assessment of the impact of climate change on food supply chain and livehoods of smallholder vegetable farmers in rural KwaZulu Natal province, South Africa.

Abstract

Smallholder vegetable farmers cultivate crops for family use and sales. In South Africa, these farmers are facing numerous challenges due to climate change, such as increased pests and diseases and reduced crop yields due to fluctuations in temperatures and the climate. These challenges significantly affect the income of these smallholder farmers and the food supply chain negatively; hence they need effective strategies to overcome the obstacles caused by climate change to their food supply chain and livelihoods. The study’s main objective was to assess the impact of climate change on the food supply chain and livelihoods of smallholder vegetable farmers in rural KwaZulu Natal Province (KZN). Using a mixed-methods design, 200 farmers were randomly selected from a population of 2,530 across 11 districts, based on a (95%) confidence level and (5%) margin of error. Quantitative data were gathered through questionnaires, while qualitative insights came from 22 key informant interviews and 12 focus group discussions. Analysis involved SPSS, STATA, SUR, Box-Cox, and multivariate probit models, with thematic analysis using NVivo 12. The first objective of this study explored the effect of climate change on the food supply chain in Africa, with a focus on South Africa. A systematic literature review of 143 peer-reviewed articles (1993–2023) revealed that climate change significantly disrupts food supply chains by reducing crop yields, lowering food quality, and limiting market availability, thereby increasing food insecurity, especially among smallholder farmers reliant on rain-fed agriculture. Thematic analysis highlighted key areas of impact, including production, food safety, distribution, and adaptation. Effective responses require the adoption of Climate-Smart Agriculture, improved access to finance and climate information, and the integration of agriculture, trade, and climate policies to build resilient and sustainable food systems in vulnerable regions. This second objective aimed to map the food supply chain in KwaZulu-Natal by identifying key actors, analysing its structure, and assessing vulnerabilities, particularly for smallholder farmers. Using a mixed-methods approach with data from 200 farmers and stakeholders, the findings revealed widespread land underutilization, reliance on informal markets, poor infrastructure, and limited institutional support. Climate change has intensified challenges, increasing production costs, crop failures, and food insecurity. The sector is further strained by an aging farming population and the growing dominance of informal traders. The study concludes that improving the resilience and sustainability of the supply chain requires targeted government support, investment in infrastructure, and strategies promoting climate-smart practices and formal market inclusion. The third objective evaluated how smallholder vegetable farmers’ perceptions of climate change affect their income in KwaZulu-Natal. Using a survey of 200 farmers and econometric analyses (SUR and Box-Cox models), results showed that (69%) experienced crop failures and (84%) reported reduced yields due to climate variability. Positive factors influencing crop management included marital status, land ownership, and participation in food networks, while larger households and sole reliance on farming reduced adaptive capacity and income. The findings highlight that farmers’ ability to adapt is influenced by both socio-economic and perceptual factors. The study recommends tailored climate education, climate-smart practices, and better access to financial and digital resources to improve resilience and income among vulnerable smallholder farmers. The fourth objective explored smallholder vegetable farmers’ perceptions of climate change and its association on food security and income in KwaZulu-Natal. Surveying 200 farmers with both quantitative and qualitative methods, results showed that the majority (93%) recognized climate change impacts like erratic rainfall and rising temperatures, which significantly affected their production and income. Despite awareness, limited access to climate information, poor infrastructure, and institutional gaps hindered adaptation. With 85% relying solely on vegetable farming, economic vulnerability remains high. The study recommends policies promoting climate-resilient crops, water harvesting, real-time climate data dissemination, and tailored training, especially for older farmers, to strengthen resilience and sustain livelihoods amid climate challenges. The last and fifth objective examined the factors influencing the choice and extent of climate adaptation strategies among smallholder vegetable farmers in KwaZulu-Natal. Surveying 200 farmers, results showed most experienced climate variability and adopted carbon- and watersmart practices. Using Multivariate Probit and Count Data models, findings revealed that education level and land size positively affected adaptation adoption, while marital status, household size, income source, soil type, association membership, and supply chain involvement negatively influenced adaptation choices and capacity. The study recommends stronger government support for Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) through training, credit access, and technologies like hot houses to improve farmers’ resilience and enhance food security. The study concluded that climate change significantly disrupts smallholder vegetable production and the food supply chain in KwaZulu Natal, negatively impacting food security and livelihoods. Farmers’ awareness of climate impacts and adoption of adaptation strategies are influenced by socio-economic and structural factors such as education, land tenure, and access to resources. However, barriers including limited infrastructure, financial constraints, and inadequate institutional support restrict effective adaptation. Therefore, while adaptation strategies offer potential to enhance resilience, interventions must be contextually tailored to address these specific challenges. The findings highlight the need for integrated approaches combining technical assistance, improved infrastructure, climate education, and inclusive policies to strengthen the adaptive capacity and sustainability of smallholder farmers in the region.