Implications of climate variability and change on urban environmental security: a case study of Lagos Mega-City in Nigeria.

Abstract

The adverse ecological, political, socio-cultural, and economic consequences of climate variability and change have been documented by scientists in different parts of the world. Therefore, its implications on growing urban societies could affect stability and security in these locations. Thus, in the quest to support the closing of the capacity gaps and to enhance the body of knowledge in the emerging field of urban security in developing economy countries, this study examines the implications of climate variability on the urban environmental security of Lagos Mega-city in Nigeria. The study identifies the impacts of changing climate alongside rapid urbanisation on urban societies and is essential in promoting urban environmental sustainability that stimulates the process of encouraging climate adaptation and building resiliency in cities. The focus on vulnerability is vital given that the urban poor bear a disproportionate burden in dealing with climate variability and change associated with negative socio-economic impacts on livelihoods, infrastructure and basic services, and the natural resource base, especially in the context of limited resources and coping options. Adaptation strategies such as seeking alternate employment and livelihood opportunities, the sale of goods and services, leveraging remittances and external support, and accessing natural resources are undermined. Lagos Mega-city is a continuously growing city located on the coastline of the Atlantic Ocean. The city’s location and rapid population growth make it susceptible to the impacts of changing climate. Subsequently, the study engaged a mixed methodological research design to achieve its objectives. This involved both qualitative and quantitative methods, encompassing exploratory and descriptive approaches. Primary data was collected by undertaking face-to-face interviews using the questionnaire that targeted adults in 400 households from the purposively chosen three communities in the Mega-city. The households were selected from spatial maps using Geographic Information System (GIS) tool and Geospatial Modelling Environment (GME). Other data were collected from three focus group discussions comprising community leaders and fishmongers. Also, information was retrieved through interviews conducted with six key informants who were mainly stakeholders in the government sectors in the city. The analysis of the data from the household interviews was done using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS), while the qualitative data from the focus group discussions and key informant interviews were subjected to content analysis. The results and discussions emanating from the data analysis techniques employed were supported by relevant literature on the themes of the study. The study revealed widespread awareness of the issues concerning climate variability and change in the city due to the perceptions of the increasing variations in the intensity of rainfall, temperature, urban heat, level of flooding, and change in seasons in the city. However, there was negligible knowledge and understanding about what contributes to the increase in climate variability and change. Also, the study indicated that changing climate alongside rapid urbanisation features were perceived to be responsible for increasing biodiversity depletion and the enhancement of negative socio-economic impacts on the residents with implications on their livelihoods. Furthermore, the study showed that the communities in the city were engaged in diverse adaptation strategies to counter the impacts of climate variability and change. The study recommends sensitisation of residents on climate issues, initiation of effective urban governance, building climate-resilient infrastructures, and provision of climate variability and change policy as a sustainable urban environmental security approach essential for tackling changing climate issues in the city.