Health expenditure, health outcomes and productivity in sub-Saharan Africa: sustainable thresholds, moderation and forecasting.
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Date
2023
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Abstract
SSA is known to be confronting distinctive health problems and growth challenges, thereby, inadequate health expenditure, poor health outcomes and their implications for productivity require investigation. This situation persists despite evidence-related policy produced in the past, suggesting the need to investigate further the nature of the relationship between interrelated variables. This study aims to investigate the nonlinear effect of PHE on health outcomes and the moderating role of education on health outcomes, forecast the performance of different PHE scenarios in achieving the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), examine the effect of PHE and health outcomes on TFP and assess the moderating role of education in the relationship between PHE and TFP. The study utilizes various techniques including Panel spatial correlation consistent-ordinary least squares (PSCC-OLS and PSCC-FE) for Objective One, Feasible quasi-generalized least squares (FQGLS) for Objective Two. Fixed and random models, panel two-stage least squares (P2SLS), and panel threshold regression for Objective Three. System panel generalized method of moments (GMM) for Objective four. This study concludes a nonlinear relationship between PHE and health outcomes exists. Furthermore, the interaction of PHE and education would improve health outcomes. Second, an overall increase in PHE by 30% would achieve the SDG target of 70 maternal deaths in only Botswana, Namibia and South Africa. In addition, about 60% of the countries in SSA might be able to achieve the SDG target for child mortality by the year 2030. Third, including PHE and health outcomes into the TFP framework would guarantee a further increase in TFP growth in SSA, and a threshold level of PHE above 3.5% of the GNP could achieve better health outcomes and a further increase in TFP growth in SSA. Fourth, the interactive impact of PHE and education might cause an improvement in TFP in SSA. The study pioneers the investigation of nonlinear, threshold, moderating, forecasting and collaborative effect of PHE, the information is essential for optimizing, redistributing and utilization of resources, specifically, a minimum of 38 dollars per person will achieve better health and productivity in SSA.
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Doctoral Degree. University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban.